Wednesday’s Edition of Innovation Weather for 2/29/2012–David Saurer

Good Morning on this Wednesday Morning on Innovation Weather, I am lead forecaster, David Saurer.

We are going to get right into the severe weather coverage as this system is causing some ruckus all across the Central Plains, Gulf Coast, and now the Tennessee Valley.

First off, MDT for moderate risk for severe thunderstorms issued by the NOAA Storm Prediction Center. This effects the Tennessee River Valley of Northeastern MS, Northern AL, Northwestern GA, Most of central and eastern TN, and South Central, Southeastern KY. 15% risk for tornadoes are likely in this region. Already we have numerous TORNADO WARNINGS in an effect. 45% chance of damaging winds. We’ve already received reports of this occurring at the present time.

TORNADO WATCH #44 is in effect for Central and Southern IL, SW Indiana, W. Kentucky, and East Central and Southeast MS until 9 am CST. Tornadoes, Hail up to 1.5 inches in Diameter, Thunderstorm wind gust to 75 mph and dangerous lightning are possible in the watch area.

TORNADO WATCH #45 is in effect for Northern and eastern Arkansas, The Missouri Bootheel, and Western Tennessee until NOON CST. Tornadoes..Hail 1.5 in diameter…Thunderstorm wind gusts to 75 mph…and dangerous lightning are possible in the watch area.

TORNADO WATCH #46 is in effect for Southern Indiana, Central and Eastern Kentucky and Northern Middle Tennessee until NOON CST. Tornadoes…Hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter…Thunderstorm wind gust to 75 mph…and Dangerous Lightning are possible in the Watch area.

TORNADO WATCH #47 is in effect for Northern Kentucky and Southern Ohio until 1 PM EST. Tornadoes….Hail to 1 inch in diameter…Thunderstorm Wind Gusts to 70 MPH… and dangerous lightning are possible in the WATCH area.

Mesoscale Discussion #179 has been issued for Tornado Watch #46 and 47 continuing to be effect as the squall line is moving ahead of the Cold Front from NE to SW over Southern Indiana to Southwestern Kentucky for damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

Keep up to date with INNOVATION WEATHER WUNDERMAP INTERACTIVE RADAR and SEVERE WEATHER CENTER for more details on this potential dangerous situation. Also, have your NOAA WEATHER RADIO ON ALERT AT ALL TIMES and HEED TO ALL WARNINGS! TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY WHEN ADVISED!

Recap the headlines from last night to this morning. Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are ripping a massive path of damage across the Central US and now effecting the Tennessee River and Ohio River Valleys at the present time. Two fatalities were reported from the line of dangerous storms yesterday evening across Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, Indiana, Illinois, and moving eastward. Harveyville, Kansas was one of the most hardest hit areas yesterday evening . Tornado damage has hit approximately 40 percent of the town.

Harrisburg, IL reports a fatality as the search and rescue is continuing across this Southern Illinois town. The southeastern portions of the town reports major damage. KFVS reports 35 to 40 homes totally destroyed and semi tractor trailers are overturned on the major interstates. Power outages region wide and roads blocked by debris.

Cape Girardeau, MO has widespread damage reported; possible tornado was reported; one man has critical injuries after this home collapsed by the force of powerful winds.

Pacudah, KY: National Weather Service has reported seeing a tornado across the river from Pacudah. Power flashes were seen also.

Branson, MS: reports of damage across the region from early-morning storms. Reports of tornado and damage in downtown section. Highway 76 strip is a war zone. Famous Variety Theater was damage.

One fatality was reported when a possible tornado hit a mobile home trailer park in southwestern Missouri, south of Buffalo. Search and Rescue are on the scene. 13 injuries were reported here.

Our prayers and thoughts are with all the victims of this terrible event happening across our heartland at the present time.

Update the situation right now. Severe storms are occurring with damaging wind gust to 60 to 75 miles per hour and tornadoes are very likely through today across the Mid-South and Ohio Valley all the way to the Carolinas. Today’s greatest threat is the Tennessee and Upper Ohio Valley including the metro areas of Jackson MS, Altanta, Birmingham, Montgomery, Huntsville, Memphis, Nashville, Knoxville, Pacudah, Louisville, Bowling Green, Lexington, Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland, Youngstown, Charleston, WV, Wheeling-Steubenville, Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Richmond VA, Raleigh-Durham, Charlotte, Wilmington, and basically the entire state of North Carolina, South Carolina. Folks, this is a serious situation and should NOT be taking lightly. NOAA WEATHER RADIOS ON! STAY ALERT TO POSSIBLE WARNING! HEED TO THE WARNINGS, AND TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY WHEN TOLD TO DO SO!

Switch over to the Midwest Winter Storm impacting the north-central United States today. Big winter storm is impacting here with heavy snow and very high winds. Heaviest snow accumulations will be confined to the northern Plains and Upper Midwest where many locations could pick up a good foot or more. There are areas receiving sleet and ice this morning where meeting the rain in the freezing to subfreezing surface levels in the Twin Cities. The storm is strengthening meaning the winds will increase in strength across the region. Whiteout conditions are possible with snow drifts feets high especially across the Dakotas and west-central Minnesota.

Interstates travel will be extremely treacherous across the region and could possibly close.

SNOWCAST INNOVATION WEATHER:

DAKOTAS: 1 to 3 inches likely

MINNESOTA:
Northern: 1 to 3 inches
Central: 2 to 4 inches
Northeastern including Duluth: 6 to 10 inches
Southern including the Twin Cities: 2 to 4 inches

WISCONSIN:
Northern including Rhinelander and Fond Du Lac: 5 to 9 inches
Central: 2 to 4 inches

MICHIGAN:
Upper Peninsula including Marquette: 6 to 1o inches
Northern Lower Michigan including Alpena: 6 to 1o inches
North Central Lower Michigan including Traverse City, Midland, Saginaw—-2 to 5 inches

Snow will then shift into the Northeast for later this afternoon and through the day on Thursday. Rain will fall across New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington. Enough cold air aloft will produce snowfall in the New England region including Boston Metro. Heaviest snowfall will concentrate across Upstate New York into Southern Vermont, Southern New Hampshire, and western Massachusetts.

SNOWCAST INNOVATION WEATHER:

NEW YORK:
Extreme Western including Buffalo/Niagara Falls: trace to an inch
Rochester and Syracuse: 1 to 3 inches
Albany—-5 to 7 inches

VERMONT:
Northern including Burlington: 2 to 4 inches
Southern: 5 to 9 inches

MASSACHUSETTS:
All of the state including the BOSTON area with the exception of CAPE COD: 6 to 10 inches
CAPE COD: 3 to 5 inches

NEW HAMPSHIRE:
Northern areas: 2 to 4 inches
Southern areas: 5 to 7 inches

MAINE:
Southeastern: 5 to 8 inches
Bangor region and central: 2 to 4 inches
Northern: 1 to 3 inches

Shift our gears to Friday. New storm system approaching the Pacific Northwest is firing up some new rounds of potential dangerous weather. The atmosphere is in a kicking condition. Closing out February on a violent note in my opinion. This system is a quick mover and will trek across the country. You can surely bet another round of severe weather is a definite forecast for your Friday.

Today, the storm system will spread mountain snow to the higher elevations and rainfall to the lower elevations and valleys across the Pacific Northwest today.

Thursday will bring the system into the Rockies bringing heavy snow to many ski resorts in this region. Gusty winds will also accompany the storm system as it moves swiftly across this region.

Friday, this day really concerns me. Southerly winds will transports damp, moist Gulf of Mexico moisture northward and combine with the cold front in the midsection. This is going to cause another round of severe weather to strike the same primary region as we experienced last night and now this morning. Low pressure at the surface will cause a strong powerful jet stream to collide. Increasing rainfall and strong storms are very likely. Severe weather will fire up from the Ohio Valley southwestward to the lower Mississippi Valley and eastern Texas. Narrow stripe of snow is possible with enough surface cold air for the Midwest.

There is a lot of uncertainties with this system. Innovation Weather will be looking over the data, model guidance and give you a better update on this situation later in the day.

KEEP UP WITH INNOVATION WEATHER FOR ALL YOUR WEATHER INFORMATION, WATCHES, AND WARNINGS AS THEY HAPPEN. WE HAVE A NOAA TICKER GOING SO FAR. SEVERE WEATHER CENTER IS LIVE WITH THE CURRENT FEEDS WITH ALL YOUR WATCHES AND WARNINGS PROVIDED, STORM TRACKING. WUNDERMAP INTERACTIVE RADAR IS A GREAT TOOL TO USE TO TRACK SEVERE WEATHER WITH. THE RESOURCES ARE HERE. IF YOU EVER NEED ANYTHING, YOU CAN COUNT ON ME, CONTACT ME ON FACEBOOK, E MAIL, LEAVE A MESSAGE AND WILL DO MY BEST TO RESPOND TO ALL. FOLLOW US ON INNOVATION WEATHER ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER FEEDS FOR ALL YOUR INFORMATION ALSO.

NATIONAL FORECAST OUTLOOK:

NORTHEAST:
The powerful winter storm will effect this region with snow, ice, rain, and thunderstorms today. Up to 8 inches of snowfall is likely across upstate New York and New England by Thursday. Snow changes to ice and rain from northern Pennsylvania and southern New York all the way to Connecticut, Rhode Island and Cape Cod. Before the changeover, accumulations of a couple inches are most likely. Thunderstorms possible severe across southwestern Pennsylvania, western West Virginia this afternoon with damaging winds gust the primary concern from strong thunderstorms. Rain with occasional rumbles of thunder is likely across southern Pennsylvania and the Mid-Atlantic. A few severe storms will produce damaging winds as the cold front moves across the southern regions of the Mid-Atlantic. High temperatures range from the 20s across Northern Maine to the 60s in the Mid-Atlantic

SOUTH:
Today’s severe thunderstorms will affect the areas of northeastern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, and much of the Tennessee River Valley. This evening the line of severe weather will drop southeastward across the Carolinas, Georgia, and central areas of Alabama and Mississippi. Overnight the threat shifts to the eastern areas of the Carolinas, northern and central Georgia and Central Alabama. Any severe storm is capable of damaging wind gust, hail, and a few isolated tornadoes through the evening hours. Overnight will be primarily damaging winds and hail. Behind the storms, skies clear out to sunny to partly cloudy remaining breezy. High temperatures will range from the 60s and 70s in the northern areas to the middle 80s across South Texas and Florida. Thursday will be the calm before the next storm system. Friday will definitely bring another round of severe weather for the same region effected today.

MIDWEST:
Locally heavy snows are falling across the Upper Midwest and northern Michigan. Accumulations of 2 to 10 inches are likely through this evening. Rain and sleet in the forecast for Wisconsin to Central Michigan changing over to all snow later this afternoon and evening hours as colder air funnels in. A few inches of snow are possible after the changeover. Severe thunderstorms are firing and moving swiftly across the Ohio Valley this morning, afternoon, and evening hours. Damaging winds, hail, and a few isolated tornadoes are likely. The tornado threat is higher later this afternoon and early evening in eastern and southern Kentucky. Behind the storm system, sustained winds of 20 to 40 mph will be likely with higher gusts to 50. Strong winds will cause blowing and drifting snows across the Northern Plains and the Great Lakes. High temperatures ranging from the 30s across the Upper Midwest to the 60s and 70s in the southern region.

WEST:
A new Pacific storm system is roaring onshore to bring a variety of weather for today and again tomorrow. Heavy snow is likely in the mountainous regions. Storm totals of 1 to 3 FEET is likely through the day, Thursday. Snow mixes in with the rain across Seattle and Portland this evening and overnight. Salt Lake City may pick up accumulations of 4 to 6 inches while 1 to 3 is likely for Denver. Rainfall will concentrate in the Pacific Northwest and central California for today and this evening. High temperatures will range from the 20s to the 40s across the Pacific Northwest to the 60s and 70s for the Desert Southwest.